Seasonal forecast of Kharif flows from Upper Jhelum catchment

S4CAST seasonal forecast model

Introduction Conclusions References

Weather Derivatives and Seasonal Forecast

The purpose of this paper is to incorporate the CPC (Climate Prediction Center) seasonal forecast in the temperature process so that conditional means and conditional variances of both the temperature and the CDD (Cooling Degree Day) may be redetermined in accordance with the seasonal forecasting probabilities. Under the Gaussian property of the underlying process, the prices of the CDD options...

Enhanced seasonal forecast skill following

Ensemble prediction of floods – catchment non-linearity and forecast probabilities

Quantifying the uncertainty of flood forecasts by ensemble methods is becoming increasingly important for operational purposes. The aim of this paper is to examine how the ensemble distribution of precipitation forecasts propagates in the catchment system, and to interpret the flood forecast probabilities relative to the forecast errors. We use the 622 km2 Kamp catchment in Austria as an exampl...

Diagnosing Sources of U.S. Seasonal Forecast Skill